Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Monday, April 18, 2011
2011 NFL Draft Positional Rankings-QB
*These rankings indicate which players I think will be the most successful in their NFL careers, not where I think the player will be drafted.
*Worst case scenario is meant to be taken as the worst "realistic" scenario.
1.) PLAYER: Ryan Mallet
School: Arkansas
Projected Round Drafted: 2nd/3rd
Mallet may be the best thrower of the last few drafts, having an arm to rival JaMarcus Russell, great size for the position and top-notch accuracy to boot (when his footwork is right at least). However, Mallet has earned many negative labels-headcase, primadonna, lazy, entitled, Million Dollar Arm, Ten Cent Head-to name a few. While I think he is easily the most physically gifted passer available in the draft, and the type of player who could easily lead his team to be perennial contenders if his head is screwed on straight, the red flags surrounding him nearly caused me to knock him down a notch. Also, will his severe lack of athleticism (5.37 in the 40) make him too much of a sitting duck in the pocket, or can he learn the subtleties of pocket awareness like Peyton and Brady have, to offset his lack of footspeed?
BEST CASE: Puts all fears of entitlement, intelligence, and laziness to rest, becomes a gym rat and true leader for his team after his eye-opening experience of getting picked in the Third round despite his enormous skills and turns his team into a team always in the discussion for the Super Bowl. Routinely turns in seasons of 4,000 yards, 30+ TDs and enjoys a Hall of Fame career.
WORST CASE: Never becomes a student of the game, rubs everyone in the organization the wrong way right off the bat and never fixes his attitude problems. On the field, he forces too many throws, never learns to decipher the complex coverages of the NFL and becomes another line in the list of QBs with all the physical tools, but none of the mental ones. Out of the NFL in three years.
NFL Comparison: Drew Bledsoe
2.) PLAYER: Blaine Gabbert
School: Missouri
Projected Round Drafted: Top 7
Gabbert comes from a pretty unconventional offense at Missouri, but he was still able to display many traits that NFL teams covet in a Franchise QB. He has a very strong arm, good accuracy and footwork, prototypical height, build, and athleticism-standing 6'4" 234 pounds with a 4.62 second 40. He will have to become accustomed to working from under center, as he hardly took any snaps there in college, and doesn't have the proper footwork in his backpedal yet, but with his work ethic, I'm sure he'll be able to overcome that. Also, the reads he had to make at Missouri were very basic, and even with the QB-friendly scheme and lack of top-notch defenders in the Big 12 North, he put up somewhat pedestrian numbers. He is a pretty safe bet to at least be a league average QB, but I'm not sold on him becoming a player worthy of a top 10 selection.
BEST CASE: Lands in a situation where he is able to learn for a year, or at least 8-10 games so he can focus more attention on the subtleties of the position. Once he becomes the starter, he puts it all together and becomes a Matt Ryan-esque quarterback.
WORST CASE: Struggles to learn the nuances of the position and never really gets fully accustomed to life as a non-shotgun QB. Throws more INTs than TDs his first three years as a starter, never leading his team to an above .500 record, then spends the rest of his career as a backup, only getting the occasional spot start or mop-up duty.
NFL Comparison: Philip Rivers
3.) PLAYER: Jake Locker
School: Washington
Projected Round Drafted: Late 1st/Early 2nd
Locker, a four year starter at the University of Washington after redshirting his first season, led UW from an 0-12 season his sophomore year-a year in which he missed 8 games to injury- to a bowl victory during his senior season. He has plenty of experience playing in a Pro Style offense, and was coached by the same man (Steve Sarkisian) who helped turn Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, Mark Sanchez, and John David Booty into draftable quarterbacks during his tenure as QB coach at USC. Locker has pretty good footwork most of the time, a live arm, terrific athleticism, and pretty good accuracy for the most part, but has struggled to put it all together. He's been heralded as a terrific pro prospect for some time now, but has yet to prove fully prove his skeptics wrong, as he never completed more than 58.4% of his throws. Moving up the draft boards again though after a good combine and Pro Day.
BEST CASE: With a good supporting cast, unlike what he dealt with at UW, Locker shows that he was much better than his mediocre college stats would indicate. His combination of physical tools along with the grit and toughness that he plays with consistently leads his team to the playoffs and he becomes one of the top QBs in the league.
WORST CASE: His lackluster college numbers prove to be what Locker really is, and he is never able to become a consistent starting QB, despite his tools and leadership. Instead of becoming a superstar, he starts on and off for a few years early in his career, but then goes on to just be a backup for the rest of his career.
NFL Comparison: Jake Plummer
4.) PLAYER:Christian Ponder
School: Florida State
Projected Round Drafted: Early 2nd
Ponder is an athletic QB with very good accuracy and a decently strong arm and came from a Pro Style offense-for the most part-at Florida State. He's had some problems with injuries, but provided he stays healthy, I think his combination of athleticism, accuracy, and leadership makes him the safest bet to be the top QB in this class. I don't think he'll be a Hall of Famer or anything, but he could develop into a very good game manager who will consistently lead his team to the playoffs.
BEST CASE: Becomes one of the top QBs in the league, similar to Aaron Rodgers-without as big of an arm. Consistently puts up 3500+ yards, 20+ TDs and single digit interceptions per year.
WORST CASE: Never escapes the injury bug and loses most of his arm strength. Spends his (very short)career toiling as a Chad Pennington level backup QB.
NFL Comparison:Aaron Rodgers, with less arm
5.) PLAYER: Cam Newton
School: Auburn
Projected Round Drafted: Top 3
Newton is the one of the most polarizing quarterback prospects in recent memory, trailing only Tim Tebow in strong, differing opinions on how his career will pan out. He does have all of the physical tools you could ask for-absolute cannon of an arm and athleticism that would allow him to star at any number of positions on the football field. Seriously, at 6'5" 248 pounds and a 4.59 40 and with his agility, he could have been a top 5 defensive end, tight end, or even a number 1 wideout in the league. He does have some severe deficiencies though also-footwork, lack of experience in anything resembling a Pro-Style offense, and most importantly, his lack of consistent accuracy. Still, if he can either patch up his deficiencies or goes to a team willing to buck the trend of "traditional offenses" and instead builds an offense to suite Newton-with read options, draws, speed options, etc and doesn't focus on the traditional passing game as much, he could be great.
BEST CASE: Finds himself with a "mad scientist" of a coach who goes against the grain and puts all his eggs in the Newton basket, tailoring the offense totally around Newton. Newton goes on to revolutionize the position, and posts several seasons of 3,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards. Becomes the first NFL QB to join the 20/20 club (20 passing and 20 rushing TDs).
WORST CASE: Fails to 'put it all together' and is never able to fix his accuracy woes (which is a lot harder to fix than one would think, as you have to completely rework your muscle memory of how you've thrown a ball and dropped back for 20+ years, and then learn the proper way to do it, all in a few years) and spends his career as a backup/Wildcat QB.
NFL Comparison: Old-Donovan McNabb/Ben Roethlisberger/Josh Freeman
6.) PLAYER: Colin Kaepernick
School: Nevada
Projected Round Drafted: 2nd/3rd
Kaepernick, another QB from a non-traditional college offense, was a three plus year starter at Nevada (took over a few games into his Freshman year). He has a very strong arm, elite athleticism (4.53 second 40) and great height for the position, standing about 6'5"-and he has room on his frame to grow. His throwing mechanics are very poor, as he has a very long windup in his throwing motion, similar to Tim Tebow's, and a slight hitch in his throw. He also lacks perfect footwork and has never worked under center, but has shown himself to be an extremely hard worker, so hopefully he can right those wrongs eventually. He is the only member of the career 9,000 passing yard/4,00 rushing yard club in NCAA history, and just one of three 20/20 club members as well.
BEST CASE: Fixes his mechanical flaws, and becomes one of the top 10 or 15 QBs in the league, forcing defenses to stay honest because of his terrific running ability. Starts for about eight or ten years and makes it to a few Pro Bowls
WORST CASE: Never fixes his mechanical flaws, and as a result struggles mightily as a passer. Becomes a backup QB/wildcat QB and ends up eventually switching to Wide Receiver.
NFL Comparison: Tim Tebow/Dennis Dixon
7.) PLAYER: Ricky Stanzi
School: Iowa
Projected Round Drafted: 3rd-5th
Stanzi was a three year starter for the Iowa Hawkeyes, but didn't post a really good season until his senior year where he completed over 64 percent of his 345 throws for just over 3,000 yards, 25 touchdowns, and only 6 interceptions. He has a good, solid frame-standing 6'4" 223 with a pretty solid arm and pretty solid accuracy. He's not an athlete by any means, but is pretty good at maneuvering in the pocket to avoid sacks (was sacked only 19 times his senior year). Stanzi is a very good leader and an intelligent football player who has plenty of experience in a pro style system, but he doesn't always make the best decisions under pressure, which can occasionally lead to turnovers.
BEST CASE: Spends a few seasons as a backup quarterback, showing flashes of brilliance...with the occasional boneheaded throw. After two or three years, he becomes a pretty good starting quarterback who doesn't lose games for his team, but doesn't exactly push them to greatness either. Enjoys a solid 10 or 12 year career before hanging it up.
WORST CASE: His lack of a true standout skill and his inconsistent decision making mark his downfall and he eventually gets cut just a few years into his career. He bounces around the league as a number two or three QB for a couple more years before calling it quits.
NFL Comparison: Jake Delhomme
8.) PLAYER: Andy Dalton
School: TCU
Projected Round Drafted: 2nd/3rd
Four year starter at TCU, leading them through one of the most successful runs in school history. Was a very efficient QB throughout his career, completing 61.6% of his 1317 career passes and just 2.28% of his throws were picked. He doesn't really have a strong arm, but is fairly accurate and has good awareness on the field and is a terrific emotional leader.
BEST CASE: After spending a few years getting mop-up duty as a backup, he takes over a starting role and becomes a serviceable quarterback who gets more out of his skills than he really should.
WORST CASE: His leadership and moxie aren't enough to ever land him a starting job and he spends a handful of years as a gritty backup who only starts a few games in his career.
NFL Comparison: Jeff Garcia
9.) PLAYER: Tyrod Taylor
School: Virginia Tech
Projected Round Drafted: 6th/7th
Definitely more athlete than quarterback, but he is a pretty intriguing prospect because he brings a lot of positive qualities to the table. He's quick and solidly built-although he lacks the height of a prototypical QB-and has a big arm. He's not terribly accurate, doesn't anticipate receivers breaking open, and he also throws the ball from a 3/4 angle, which compounds the problem his 6'1" frame presents him when throwing in the pocket.
BEST CASE: After a few years as a WildcatQB/Backup QB, he moves into a starting role for a few years. He doesn't set the world ablaze, but is a serviceable QB for the most part.
WORST CASE: Ends up not being fast/quick enough to be an effective Wildcat QB or to switch to another position, and never develops the skills to be an NFL quarterback either.
NFL Comparison: Better passing Pat White
10.) PLAYER: Joshua Portis
School: Cal-PA
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
Former Florida and Maryland QB. Led Cal-PA to a national title his senior year. Big, strong, and athletic (6'3" 211 4.62 second 40) with a live arm but questionable (at best) mechanics and accuracy. Some questions about his competitiveness, as he transferred twice instead of sticking out his commitments. Extremely high ceiling though because of his natural skill set.
BEST CASE: Refines his footwork and accuracy, and goes on to become one of the better dual-threat QBs of recent memory.
WORST CASE: Shows that the step up in competition was far too much and never elevates above a practice squad QB before switching positions
NFL Comparison: Josh McCown
11.) PLAYER: Adam Froman
School: Louisville
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
JUCO transfer started his only two years at Louisville, and missed a handful of games per season. He was fairly productive when playing and displayed decent awareness with average all around skills (arm strength/accuracy/anticipation) for the position. He is an outstanding athlete (6'4" 220 4.55 second 40) and if quarterbacking doesn't work out for him, he could be in line for a position change.
BEST CASE: Puts all of the tools together and becomes a viable NFL starter for run-oriented teams. Never puts up great stats but does enough to win some games.
WORST CASE: Doesn't have the arm or accuracy to make it in the league and eventually switches to safety.
NFL Comparison: Mark Brunell/Brian Brohm
12.) PLAYER: Pat Devlin
School: Delaware
Projected Round Drafted: 6th-UDFA
The starter at Delaware after Flacco left, Devlin quietly put up a few good seasons leading the Blue Hens. He doesn't have the arm of his fellow Delaware alum, but has a much quicker release and is more accurate than Flacco was coming out of college. Really screwed himself at his Pro Day though, showing up 30 minutes late and proceeding to look well below average throwing that day.
BEST CASE: Becomes an efficient game manager who completes 62 or 63 percent of his passes in his few years starting-spends the rest of his career as one of the more coveted backups in the league.
WORST CASE: Shows in camp that he doesn't have good enough accuracy or anticipation to mask his lack of arm strength and never makes it above a backup/#3 role.
NFL Comparison: Poor man's Matt Schaub
13.) PLAYER: T.J Yates
School: North Carolina
Projected Round Drafted: 5th-7th
Yates is a pretty average quarterback all the way around--average arm strength, accuracy, awareness, anticipation. He does have somewhat sound footwork and pretty good mechanics and has really improved his decision making over his four years as the starting UNC quarterback. He doesn't have much room to grow, but he could turn out to be a decent quarterback in the league who sticks around for about 10 years.
BEST CASE: Gets the occasional start, whether it is due to injury of the starter, or if he is keeping the seat warm til a more talented rookie in a few years. Goes the Billy Volek route after that and is in the league well into his thirties as a solid backup.
WORST CASE: His lack of an above-average trait kills his chances of making a roster in training camp and he ends up in the CFL.
NFL Comparison: Matt Cassel
14.) PLAYER: Greg McElroy
School: Alabama
Projected Round Drafted: 6th/7th
Very savvy and efficient with the football, a strong leader, and a student of the game, however, his physical skill set will severely limit him at the next level. He has a well below-average arm and only mediocre accuracy. Should be a coaches favorite though for the work he will put in on and off the field.
BEST CASE: Spends about a dozen years as the backup for the same team. Stays around so long because he acts as another coach to all of the players around him.
WORST CASE: Can't overcome his severe lack of NFL passing skills and flounders in the preseason, leading to him becoming the #3 QB and never escaping that role.
NFL Comparison: Trent Edwards
15.) PLAYER: Scott Tolzein
School: Wisconsin
Projected Round Drafted: 6th-UDFA
Even though he is only a two year starter, Tolzein has a maturity in the pocket that is well beyond his experience level. He is one of the better QBs in recent memory at looking off defenders to open a man up and has the accuracy to put the ball exactly where it needs to go. However, he is another player that simply suffers from not being physically gifted enough, as he is severely lacking in the arm strength and athleticism departments.
BEST CASE: Musters up a little more arm strength upon reaching the NFL and getting with their strength coaches and develops into a very nice backup with starter capability.
WORST CASE: His accuracy isn't enough to overcome his physical limitations and he is cut in camp only to bounce around a few practice squads over the next few years.
NFL Comparison: Marc Bulger
16.) PLAYER: Mitch Mustain
School: USC
Projected Round Drafted: 7th-UDFA
Mustain is a decent athlete for the position, with an above-average arm and pretty good accuracy. He is extremely raw though because he was a backup pretty much his entire career. That being said, he does have the skill set to eventually make a name for himself if he can develop his in-game resume and stay out of trouble (arrested, but not charged with, selling prescription drugs over the internet).
NFL Comparison: Matt Flynn
17.) PLAYER: Trevor Vittatoe
School: UTEP
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
For what its worth, Vittatoe's UTEP coach Mark Price, who also coached Drew Bledsoe, said Trevor was the best passer he has ever coached. Vittatoe has a pretty strong srm and pretty good accuracy as well. Little to no experience in a Pro Style attack. Lacks top shelf awareness, but is a gritty competitor. Probably won't ever be more than a backup, and possibly could convert to either safety or wide receiver due to with his surprising athleticism.
NFL Comparison: J.P Losman
18.) PLAYER: Jerrod Johnson
School: Texas A&M
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
Could have possibly been a 2nd to 4th round prospect had he not needed offseason surgery after the 2009-10 season. If his shoulder ever gets healthy and back to where it was before, he will have a rocket arm with surprisingly good accuracy. If his shoulder doesn't improve, he has the athleticism and size to possibly move to another position.
NFL Comparison: JaMarcus Russell/Daunte Culpepper
19.) PLAYER: Nathan Enderle
School: Idaho
Projected Round Drafted: 7th-UDFA
Enderle is a well built quarterback (6'5" 240) with a solid arm, but that's about it. He isn't a good decision maker, has questionable accuracy, and despite starting for four years, does not command a team like you would expect. Probably won't have a very long or successful career.
NFL Comparison: Poor man's Kerry Collins
20.) PLAYER: Adam Weber
School: Minnesota
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
I'm not sure why, but I've heard from a few people that Adam Weber is an intriguing prospect who could surprise in the NFL. He doesn't have a strong arm, accuracy, prototypical height, athleticism, or anything that makes me think he'll be successful at all, but the interest others have in him made me put him just above the worst of this class.
NFL Comparison: Less athletic Bruce Gradkowski
21.) PLAYER: Austin Arnaud
School: Iowa State
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
Intriguing prospect if he can come back from a devastating knee injury. Possesses solid enough athleticism to possibly switch positions and a strong enough arm to maybe get a few looks at QB in the preseason.
NFL Comparison: Seneca Wallace
22.) PLAYER: Ben Chappell
School: Indiana
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
Another Big 10 QB who, for whatever reason, has piqued the interest of a few draft junkies. He did put up solid numbers last season (3,295 yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs), but none of his skills really translate to a decent NFL QB.
NFL Comparison: Colt Brennan
23.) PLAYER: Justin Roper
School: Montana
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
Roper, an Oregon transfer, boasts terrific size, solid accuracy and pretty good pocket athleticism. He won't be a world beater, but has enough upside to warrant a few looks as an UDFA.
NFL Comparison: Erik Ainge (minus drugs)
24.) PLAYER: Taylor Potts
School: Texas Tech
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
The first Tech QB that has legit NFL arm strength, but unfortunately, that's about where the positives end. He lacks accuracy, footwork, anticipation, and athleticism and will probably end up with the same fate as all the other recent Texas Tech QBs
NFL Comparison: Hunter Cantwell
25.) PLAYER: Ryan Colburn
School: Fresno State
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
Colburn lacks the all-around skills to ever be a starting QB in the NFL, but has enough arm strength and moxie to maybe make a roster or two.
NFL Comparison: David Greene
*Worst case scenario is meant to be taken as the worst "realistic" scenario.
1.) PLAYER: Ryan Mallet
School: Arkansas
Projected Round Drafted: 2nd/3rd
Mallet may be the best thrower of the last few drafts, having an arm to rival JaMarcus Russell, great size for the position and top-notch accuracy to boot (when his footwork is right at least). However, Mallet has earned many negative labels-headcase, primadonna, lazy, entitled, Million Dollar Arm, Ten Cent Head-to name a few. While I think he is easily the most physically gifted passer available in the draft, and the type of player who could easily lead his team to be perennial contenders if his head is screwed on straight, the red flags surrounding him nearly caused me to knock him down a notch. Also, will his severe lack of athleticism (5.37 in the 40) make him too much of a sitting duck in the pocket, or can he learn the subtleties of pocket awareness like Peyton and Brady have, to offset his lack of footspeed?
BEST CASE: Puts all fears of entitlement, intelligence, and laziness to rest, becomes a gym rat and true leader for his team after his eye-opening experience of getting picked in the Third round despite his enormous skills and turns his team into a team always in the discussion for the Super Bowl. Routinely turns in seasons of 4,000 yards, 30+ TDs and enjoys a Hall of Fame career.
WORST CASE: Never becomes a student of the game, rubs everyone in the organization the wrong way right off the bat and never fixes his attitude problems. On the field, he forces too many throws, never learns to decipher the complex coverages of the NFL and becomes another line in the list of QBs with all the physical tools, but none of the mental ones. Out of the NFL in three years.
NFL Comparison: Drew Bledsoe
2.) PLAYER: Blaine Gabbert
School: Missouri
Projected Round Drafted: Top 7
Gabbert comes from a pretty unconventional offense at Missouri, but he was still able to display many traits that NFL teams covet in a Franchise QB. He has a very strong arm, good accuracy and footwork, prototypical height, build, and athleticism-standing 6'4" 234 pounds with a 4.62 second 40. He will have to become accustomed to working from under center, as he hardly took any snaps there in college, and doesn't have the proper footwork in his backpedal yet, but with his work ethic, I'm sure he'll be able to overcome that. Also, the reads he had to make at Missouri were very basic, and even with the QB-friendly scheme and lack of top-notch defenders in the Big 12 North, he put up somewhat pedestrian numbers. He is a pretty safe bet to at least be a league average QB, but I'm not sold on him becoming a player worthy of a top 10 selection.
BEST CASE: Lands in a situation where he is able to learn for a year, or at least 8-10 games so he can focus more attention on the subtleties of the position. Once he becomes the starter, he puts it all together and becomes a Matt Ryan-esque quarterback.
WORST CASE: Struggles to learn the nuances of the position and never really gets fully accustomed to life as a non-shotgun QB. Throws more INTs than TDs his first three years as a starter, never leading his team to an above .500 record, then spends the rest of his career as a backup, only getting the occasional spot start or mop-up duty.
NFL Comparison: Philip Rivers
3.) PLAYER: Jake Locker
School: Washington
Projected Round Drafted: Late 1st/Early 2nd
Locker, a four year starter at the University of Washington after redshirting his first season, led UW from an 0-12 season his sophomore year-a year in which he missed 8 games to injury- to a bowl victory during his senior season. He has plenty of experience playing in a Pro Style offense, and was coached by the same man (Steve Sarkisian) who helped turn Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, Mark Sanchez, and John David Booty into draftable quarterbacks during his tenure as QB coach at USC. Locker has pretty good footwork most of the time, a live arm, terrific athleticism, and pretty good accuracy for the most part, but has struggled to put it all together. He's been heralded as a terrific pro prospect for some time now, but has yet to prove fully prove his skeptics wrong, as he never completed more than 58.4% of his throws. Moving up the draft boards again though after a good combine and Pro Day.
BEST CASE: With a good supporting cast, unlike what he dealt with at UW, Locker shows that he was much better than his mediocre college stats would indicate. His combination of physical tools along with the grit and toughness that he plays with consistently leads his team to the playoffs and he becomes one of the top QBs in the league.
WORST CASE: His lackluster college numbers prove to be what Locker really is, and he is never able to become a consistent starting QB, despite his tools and leadership. Instead of becoming a superstar, he starts on and off for a few years early in his career, but then goes on to just be a backup for the rest of his career.
NFL Comparison: Jake Plummer
4.) PLAYER:Christian Ponder
School: Florida State
Projected Round Drafted: Early 2nd
Ponder is an athletic QB with very good accuracy and a decently strong arm and came from a Pro Style offense-for the most part-at Florida State. He's had some problems with injuries, but provided he stays healthy, I think his combination of athleticism, accuracy, and leadership makes him the safest bet to be the top QB in this class. I don't think he'll be a Hall of Famer or anything, but he could develop into a very good game manager who will consistently lead his team to the playoffs.
BEST CASE: Becomes one of the top QBs in the league, similar to Aaron Rodgers-without as big of an arm. Consistently puts up 3500+ yards, 20+ TDs and single digit interceptions per year.
WORST CASE: Never escapes the injury bug and loses most of his arm strength. Spends his (very short)career toiling as a Chad Pennington level backup QB.
NFL Comparison:Aaron Rodgers, with less arm
5.) PLAYER: Cam Newton
School: Auburn
Projected Round Drafted: Top 3
Newton is the one of the most polarizing quarterback prospects in recent memory, trailing only Tim Tebow in strong, differing opinions on how his career will pan out. He does have all of the physical tools you could ask for-absolute cannon of an arm and athleticism that would allow him to star at any number of positions on the football field. Seriously, at 6'5" 248 pounds and a 4.59 40 and with his agility, he could have been a top 5 defensive end, tight end, or even a number 1 wideout in the league. He does have some severe deficiencies though also-footwork, lack of experience in anything resembling a Pro-Style offense, and most importantly, his lack of consistent accuracy. Still, if he can either patch up his deficiencies or goes to a team willing to buck the trend of "traditional offenses" and instead builds an offense to suite Newton-with read options, draws, speed options, etc and doesn't focus on the traditional passing game as much, he could be great.
BEST CASE: Finds himself with a "mad scientist" of a coach who goes against the grain and puts all his eggs in the Newton basket, tailoring the offense totally around Newton. Newton goes on to revolutionize the position, and posts several seasons of 3,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards. Becomes the first NFL QB to join the 20/20 club (20 passing and 20 rushing TDs).
WORST CASE: Fails to 'put it all together' and is never able to fix his accuracy woes (which is a lot harder to fix than one would think, as you have to completely rework your muscle memory of how you've thrown a ball and dropped back for 20+ years, and then learn the proper way to do it, all in a few years) and spends his career as a backup/Wildcat QB.
NFL Comparison: Old-Donovan McNabb/Ben Roethlisberger/Josh Freeman
6.) PLAYER: Colin Kaepernick
School: Nevada
Projected Round Drafted: 2nd/3rd
Kaepernick, another QB from a non-traditional college offense, was a three plus year starter at Nevada (took over a few games into his Freshman year). He has a very strong arm, elite athleticism (4.53 second 40) and great height for the position, standing about 6'5"-and he has room on his frame to grow. His throwing mechanics are very poor, as he has a very long windup in his throwing motion, similar to Tim Tebow's, and a slight hitch in his throw. He also lacks perfect footwork and has never worked under center, but has shown himself to be an extremely hard worker, so hopefully he can right those wrongs eventually. He is the only member of the career 9,000 passing yard/4,00 rushing yard club in NCAA history, and just one of three 20/20 club members as well.
BEST CASE: Fixes his mechanical flaws, and becomes one of the top 10 or 15 QBs in the league, forcing defenses to stay honest because of his terrific running ability. Starts for about eight or ten years and makes it to a few Pro Bowls
WORST CASE: Never fixes his mechanical flaws, and as a result struggles mightily as a passer. Becomes a backup QB/wildcat QB and ends up eventually switching to Wide Receiver.
NFL Comparison: Tim Tebow/Dennis Dixon
7.) PLAYER: Ricky Stanzi
School: Iowa
Projected Round Drafted: 3rd-5th
Stanzi was a three year starter for the Iowa Hawkeyes, but didn't post a really good season until his senior year where he completed over 64 percent of his 345 throws for just over 3,000 yards, 25 touchdowns, and only 6 interceptions. He has a good, solid frame-standing 6'4" 223 with a pretty solid arm and pretty solid accuracy. He's not an athlete by any means, but is pretty good at maneuvering in the pocket to avoid sacks (was sacked only 19 times his senior year). Stanzi is a very good leader and an intelligent football player who has plenty of experience in a pro style system, but he doesn't always make the best decisions under pressure, which can occasionally lead to turnovers.
BEST CASE: Spends a few seasons as a backup quarterback, showing flashes of brilliance...with the occasional boneheaded throw. After two or three years, he becomes a pretty good starting quarterback who doesn't lose games for his team, but doesn't exactly push them to greatness either. Enjoys a solid 10 or 12 year career before hanging it up.
WORST CASE: His lack of a true standout skill and his inconsistent decision making mark his downfall and he eventually gets cut just a few years into his career. He bounces around the league as a number two or three QB for a couple more years before calling it quits.
NFL Comparison: Jake Delhomme
8.) PLAYER: Andy Dalton
School: TCU
Projected Round Drafted: 2nd/3rd
Four year starter at TCU, leading them through one of the most successful runs in school history. Was a very efficient QB throughout his career, completing 61.6% of his 1317 career passes and just 2.28% of his throws were picked. He doesn't really have a strong arm, but is fairly accurate and has good awareness on the field and is a terrific emotional leader.
BEST CASE: After spending a few years getting mop-up duty as a backup, he takes over a starting role and becomes a serviceable quarterback who gets more out of his skills than he really should.
WORST CASE: His leadership and moxie aren't enough to ever land him a starting job and he spends a handful of years as a gritty backup who only starts a few games in his career.
NFL Comparison: Jeff Garcia
9.) PLAYER: Tyrod Taylor
School: Virginia Tech
Projected Round Drafted: 6th/7th
Definitely more athlete than quarterback, but he is a pretty intriguing prospect because he brings a lot of positive qualities to the table. He's quick and solidly built-although he lacks the height of a prototypical QB-and has a big arm. He's not terribly accurate, doesn't anticipate receivers breaking open, and he also throws the ball from a 3/4 angle, which compounds the problem his 6'1" frame presents him when throwing in the pocket.
BEST CASE: After a few years as a WildcatQB/Backup QB, he moves into a starting role for a few years. He doesn't set the world ablaze, but is a serviceable QB for the most part.
WORST CASE: Ends up not being fast/quick enough to be an effective Wildcat QB or to switch to another position, and never develops the skills to be an NFL quarterback either.
NFL Comparison: Better passing Pat White
10.) PLAYER: Joshua Portis
School: Cal-PA
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
Former Florida and Maryland QB. Led Cal-PA to a national title his senior year. Big, strong, and athletic (6'3" 211 4.62 second 40) with a live arm but questionable (at best) mechanics and accuracy. Some questions about his competitiveness, as he transferred twice instead of sticking out his commitments. Extremely high ceiling though because of his natural skill set.
BEST CASE: Refines his footwork and accuracy, and goes on to become one of the better dual-threat QBs of recent memory.
WORST CASE: Shows that the step up in competition was far too much and never elevates above a practice squad QB before switching positions
NFL Comparison: Josh McCown
11.) PLAYER: Adam Froman
School: Louisville
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
JUCO transfer started his only two years at Louisville, and missed a handful of games per season. He was fairly productive when playing and displayed decent awareness with average all around skills (arm strength/accuracy/anticipation) for the position. He is an outstanding athlete (6'4" 220 4.55 second 40) and if quarterbacking doesn't work out for him, he could be in line for a position change.
BEST CASE: Puts all of the tools together and becomes a viable NFL starter for run-oriented teams. Never puts up great stats but does enough to win some games.
WORST CASE: Doesn't have the arm or accuracy to make it in the league and eventually switches to safety.
NFL Comparison: Mark Brunell/Brian Brohm
12.) PLAYER: Pat Devlin
School: Delaware
Projected Round Drafted: 6th-UDFA
The starter at Delaware after Flacco left, Devlin quietly put up a few good seasons leading the Blue Hens. He doesn't have the arm of his fellow Delaware alum, but has a much quicker release and is more accurate than Flacco was coming out of college. Really screwed himself at his Pro Day though, showing up 30 minutes late and proceeding to look well below average throwing that day.
BEST CASE: Becomes an efficient game manager who completes 62 or 63 percent of his passes in his few years starting-spends the rest of his career as one of the more coveted backups in the league.
WORST CASE: Shows in camp that he doesn't have good enough accuracy or anticipation to mask his lack of arm strength and never makes it above a backup/#3 role.
NFL Comparison: Poor man's Matt Schaub
13.) PLAYER: T.J Yates
School: North Carolina
Projected Round Drafted: 5th-7th
Yates is a pretty average quarterback all the way around--average arm strength, accuracy, awareness, anticipation. He does have somewhat sound footwork and pretty good mechanics and has really improved his decision making over his four years as the starting UNC quarterback. He doesn't have much room to grow, but he could turn out to be a decent quarterback in the league who sticks around for about 10 years.
BEST CASE: Gets the occasional start, whether it is due to injury of the starter, or if he is keeping the seat warm til a more talented rookie in a few years. Goes the Billy Volek route after that and is in the league well into his thirties as a solid backup.
WORST CASE: His lack of an above-average trait kills his chances of making a roster in training camp and he ends up in the CFL.
NFL Comparison: Matt Cassel
14.) PLAYER: Greg McElroy
School: Alabama
Projected Round Drafted: 6th/7th
Very savvy and efficient with the football, a strong leader, and a student of the game, however, his physical skill set will severely limit him at the next level. He has a well below-average arm and only mediocre accuracy. Should be a coaches favorite though for the work he will put in on and off the field.
BEST CASE: Spends about a dozen years as the backup for the same team. Stays around so long because he acts as another coach to all of the players around him.
WORST CASE: Can't overcome his severe lack of NFL passing skills and flounders in the preseason, leading to him becoming the #3 QB and never escaping that role.
NFL Comparison: Trent Edwards
15.) PLAYER: Scott Tolzein
School: Wisconsin
Projected Round Drafted: 6th-UDFA
Even though he is only a two year starter, Tolzein has a maturity in the pocket that is well beyond his experience level. He is one of the better QBs in recent memory at looking off defenders to open a man up and has the accuracy to put the ball exactly where it needs to go. However, he is another player that simply suffers from not being physically gifted enough, as he is severely lacking in the arm strength and athleticism departments.
BEST CASE: Musters up a little more arm strength upon reaching the NFL and getting with their strength coaches and develops into a very nice backup with starter capability.
WORST CASE: His accuracy isn't enough to overcome his physical limitations and he is cut in camp only to bounce around a few practice squads over the next few years.
NFL Comparison: Marc Bulger
16.) PLAYER: Mitch Mustain
School: USC
Projected Round Drafted: 7th-UDFA
Mustain is a decent athlete for the position, with an above-average arm and pretty good accuracy. He is extremely raw though because he was a backup pretty much his entire career. That being said, he does have the skill set to eventually make a name for himself if he can develop his in-game resume and stay out of trouble (arrested, but not charged with, selling prescription drugs over the internet).
NFL Comparison: Matt Flynn
17.) PLAYER: Trevor Vittatoe
School: UTEP
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
For what its worth, Vittatoe's UTEP coach Mark Price, who also coached Drew Bledsoe, said Trevor was the best passer he has ever coached. Vittatoe has a pretty strong srm and pretty good accuracy as well. Little to no experience in a Pro Style attack. Lacks top shelf awareness, but is a gritty competitor. Probably won't ever be more than a backup, and possibly could convert to either safety or wide receiver due to with his surprising athleticism.
NFL Comparison: J.P Losman
18.) PLAYER: Jerrod Johnson
School: Texas A&M
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
Could have possibly been a 2nd to 4th round prospect had he not needed offseason surgery after the 2009-10 season. If his shoulder ever gets healthy and back to where it was before, he will have a rocket arm with surprisingly good accuracy. If his shoulder doesn't improve, he has the athleticism and size to possibly move to another position.
NFL Comparison: JaMarcus Russell/Daunte Culpepper
19.) PLAYER: Nathan Enderle
School: Idaho
Projected Round Drafted: 7th-UDFA
Enderle is a well built quarterback (6'5" 240) with a solid arm, but that's about it. He isn't a good decision maker, has questionable accuracy, and despite starting for four years, does not command a team like you would expect. Probably won't have a very long or successful career.
NFL Comparison: Poor man's Kerry Collins
20.) PLAYER: Adam Weber
School: Minnesota
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
I'm not sure why, but I've heard from a few people that Adam Weber is an intriguing prospect who could surprise in the NFL. He doesn't have a strong arm, accuracy, prototypical height, athleticism, or anything that makes me think he'll be successful at all, but the interest others have in him made me put him just above the worst of this class.
NFL Comparison: Less athletic Bruce Gradkowski
21.) PLAYER: Austin Arnaud
School: Iowa State
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
Intriguing prospect if he can come back from a devastating knee injury. Possesses solid enough athleticism to possibly switch positions and a strong enough arm to maybe get a few looks at QB in the preseason.
NFL Comparison: Seneca Wallace
22.) PLAYER: Ben Chappell
School: Indiana
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
Another Big 10 QB who, for whatever reason, has piqued the interest of a few draft junkies. He did put up solid numbers last season (3,295 yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs), but none of his skills really translate to a decent NFL QB.
NFL Comparison: Colt Brennan
23.) PLAYER: Justin Roper
School: Montana
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
Roper, an Oregon transfer, boasts terrific size, solid accuracy and pretty good pocket athleticism. He won't be a world beater, but has enough upside to warrant a few looks as an UDFA.
NFL Comparison: Erik Ainge (minus drugs)
24.) PLAYER: Taylor Potts
School: Texas Tech
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
The first Tech QB that has legit NFL arm strength, but unfortunately, that's about where the positives end. He lacks accuracy, footwork, anticipation, and athleticism and will probably end up with the same fate as all the other recent Texas Tech QBs
NFL Comparison: Hunter Cantwell
25.) PLAYER: Ryan Colburn
School: Fresno State
Projected Round Drafted: UDFA
Colburn lacks the all-around skills to ever be a starting QB in the NFL, but has enough arm strength and moxie to maybe make a roster or two.
NFL Comparison: David Greene
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